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SUPER AI AGENTS
The development of AI systems capable of outperforming humans in strategic decision-making and real-world leadership—possessing skills akin to top CEOs and statesmen—represents a more immediate and concrete milestone than general artificial intelligence. These "strategically superhuman" AI agents would combine sophisticated human behavior modeling, advanced social manipulation abilities, and long-term planning capabilities, potentially marking a critical threshold for human agency. While such strategic superiority could emerge before full AGI, the challenge lies in implementing proper alignment mechanisms or capability limitations before AI systems achieve decisive advantages in planning and influence.
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What’s happening in AI right now
Data owners win the AI race?
Reddit's transformation into an AI data powerhouse marks one of the most remarkable pivots in recent tech history. The company's first profitable quarter in Q3 2024, driven by strategic AI partnerships, signals a broader trend: the real value in artificial intelligence may not lie where most expect it.
Market movements
While much attention focuses on model development and compute infrastructure, this week's developments suggest power is shifting toward data owners and regional partnerships. Alibaba's stock jumped 8.6% following news of a potential partnership with Apple to implement AI features for iPhones in China. The deal highlights how regional compliance requirements are reshaping the competitive landscape, creating unexpected winners and losers.
Meanwhile, Cisco exceeded market expectations in its fiscal second quarter, with AI infrastructure orders topping $350 million. The company's successful integration of Splunk drove security unit revenue up 117% to $2.11 billion, demonstrating how established tech players can leverage acquisitions to capture AI-driven growth.
Data as the new moat
Reddit's success particularly stands out because it challenges conventional wisdom about AI business models. Its monthly active users have nearly tripled from 430 million in 2019 to 1.21 billion by the end of 2024, but the platform's true value lies in its massive repository of authentic human conversations - precisely the kind of data needed to train next-generation AI models.
AI development costs
SoftBank's recent results - a $2.4 billion loss in Q3 despite a $4 billion profit for the nine-month period - reflect the volatile nature of betting on AI's future. The company's ambitious Stargate project, with potential investments up to $500 billion, suggests that major players see AI development as increasingly crucial.
Looking forward
These developments point to three emerging trends:
Data ownership becoming more valuable than model development
Regional partnerships reshaping global AI competition
Established tech companies finding ways to monetize AI infrastructure
The question isn't just who will build the best AI models, but who owns the most valuable data and can navigate regional regulatory frameworks most effectively. For investors and business leaders, this suggests looking beyond the obvious players to identify companies with unique data assets or strategic positions.
This week's events remind us that in technology, the most profitable position isn't always the most obvious one. The real winners might not be those building the biggest models, but those who own the right data and forge the right partnerships.
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